Until now, there have been no signs of blockbuster transfers in the Premier League during the winter transfer window. Big clubs like Man City, Man United, and Chelsea, as well as smaller teams, seem indifferent to mid-season reinforcements.
The feeling after over two weeks into the winter transfer window is that many Premier League clubs are apathetic rather than taking any specific actions. Major teams like Chelsea are no longer enthusiastic, and the lower-ranked teams, traditionally viewing this window as an opportunity to strengthen for the relegation battle, also seem disinterested.
Looking ahead, looking back, and then shopping
It's not difficult to name the reason for this indifference: Financial Fair Play (FFP). Every Premier League club, before making any winter transfer deals, must carefully assess their financial situation, specifically how it compares to the financial regulations set by the league. What is it? Clubs are not allowed to incur losses exceeding £105 million over a 3-season cycle (currently extended to 4 seasons due to the impact of Covid-19). The warning sign came last November when Everton faced a 10-point deduction, the first warning from the Premier League organizers. This time, both Everton and Nottingham Forest face accusations of financial breaches, making clubs more cautious.
Of course, it would be hasty to conclude that the remaining two weeks of this winter transfer window will continue this quiet trend. Last year's winter transfer window followed a similar pattern before deals picked up in the latter half of January. There were still differences, as the first two weeks of last winter's window saw notable transfers like Cody Gakpo to Liverpool for £37 million early in the year and Chelsea making four new signings by mid-month. For most Premier League clubs, the winter transfer window is a situational solution, with many finding the most effective deals in the summer.
For example, West Ham would not consider this winter transfer window if not for the injury crisis affecting their attacking options. Similarly, a serious issue with Christopher Nkunku on the flank and Nicolas Jackson's duty at AFCON has prompted Pochettino to consider adding a striker. While West Ham and Chelsea are still evaluating, Tottenham has quickly made two winter signings: borrowing Timo Werner from Leipzig and acquiring young defender Radu Dragusin for £25 million.
Even so, these moves may not be enough to salvage the overall sluggishness of the winter transfer window in the Premier League at this point. The decrease in transfer rumors is a clear indicator. Arsenal needs a quality striker, but FFP is hindering their pursuit of top target Ivan Toney from Brentford. Newly promoted teams like Sheffield United and Burnley are attempting to improve their survival chances with loan deals.
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Unfavorable forecasts for this winter window
The scheduling of national team competitions in the first month of this year, such as AFCON and the Asian Cup, means many transfer targets for Premier League clubs may not be ready to play immediately. Few clubs are willing to make a purchase when realizing the player may only return to action in mid-February after completing national team duties. A notable case is striker Victor Osimhen, who can only return to Europe in late February if Nigeria reaches the AFCON final.
Pressure from FFP will force Premier League clubs to offload surplus players before adding new ones. The challenge lies in finding buyers, as there are many sellers but few desperate buyers. In the last summer transfer window, clubs from the Saudi Pro League became lovable guests, rescuing surplus players from the Premier League. This winter, they are less generous after filling their foreign player quota. Premier League clubs find it difficult to expect continental teams to "clean up excess stock" and help them manage the exorbitant fees and wages of players in England. Only two Bundesliga clubs have rescued surplus players from the Premier League: Bayern Munich signed Eric Dier from Tottenham, and Dortmund loaned Jadon Sancho from Man United and Ian Maatsen from Chelsea.
Other factors are also impacting Premier League transfers this winter and in the upcoming summer: The ongoing legal processes involving Everton and Man City. If Everton's appeal is resolved in a few weeks, the 115 allegations against Man City might only start late this season, and a conclusive outcome could extend for a year. All of these factors contribute to making this year's Premier League winter window even more bleak.
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